Health Premium Subsidy
The longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history was triggered by the pending expiration of the pandemic's enhanced subsidy for the ACA Premium Tax Credit in late 2025.
Expiration left many households facing a massive stealth marginal tax rate in 2026.
The Health Care Premium Tax Credit is based on region, household size & ages, and income (MAGI). There are dramatic fluctuations in the pricing of the Benchmark Premium among even adjacent regions. And the numbers get astronomical as household ages approach 64, the final year before Medicare. The Income Sensitivity line is the potential stealth marginal tax rate implied by the phaseout (2025) or phaseout/cliff (2026) of the credit.
How to read this
The shaded area at the top is your benchmark premium — the second-lowest-cost Silver plan available to your household. It's pre-filled from published rates for your rating region (or a statewide estimate); override it with your actual number from healthcare.gov or your state marketplace.
The wedge growing from the left is the maximum required contribution the IRS expects your household to pay out of pocket. Anything between that wedge and the benchmark line is your Premium Tax Credit.
The Income Sensitivity line is the implicit marginal tax impact from the credit's phase-out. This is the same phase-out-creates-marginal-rate pattern as SALT, QBI, IRMAA, and the rest.
The dashed vertical line marks your MAGI. Drag the big income slider above the chart to slide it left or right.